🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

RB Bragantino cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vasco DA Gama.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Bragantino beat Vasco DA Gama 0-2 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.47 xG and RB Bragantino 0.83 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.5 short of their projected output. RB Bragantino outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.13 / defence 0.90 against RB Bragantino attack 1.10 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 51% | Draw 29% | RB Bragantino 20%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a RB Bragantino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 43%, RB Bragantino 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights