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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Juventude cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vasco DA Gama.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventude beat Vasco DA Gama 1-3 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 2.01 xG and Juventude 1.07 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Juventude outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.12 / defence 1.30 against Juventude attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 59% | Draw 21% | Juventude 20%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Juventude win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 53%, Juventude 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Juventude's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.31 PPG, Juventude 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights