Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 29 as Vasco DA Gama welcome Juventude to Estádio São Januário. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama at Estádio São Januário this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio São Januário than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventude have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Juventude have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Vasco DA Gama) versus 1.20 (Juventude). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Vasco DA Gama, 1 for Juventude and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2024, ended 0–2 with Juventude winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Juventude trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vasco DA Gama 54% and Juventude 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 46% | Juventude 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.75 xG and Juventude 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.098 / defence 1.127 | Juventude attack 0.773 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 0.979. Data: 65 Vasco DA Gama games / 28 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 59% | Draw 23% | Juventude 18%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Juventude 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Vasco DA Gama (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasco DA Gama are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vasco DA Gama 50% | Juventude 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 59% | Draw 23% | Juventude 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.75 / Juventude 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.098 / def 1.127 | Juventude attack 0.773 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.347 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Juventude xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude?
Vasco DA Gama 1 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 59% chance of winning, Juventude a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Juventude?
Record (1 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 0 | Juventude 1W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Juventude in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vasco DA Gama's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.29
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.61
0.85
Juventude xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
3%
32.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 0.85 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 28 games, going 11W 6D 11L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 1.18 PPG from 28 outings (8W 9D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasco DA Gama on 1.39 PPG, Juventude on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 8W 3D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.50 points per game from 14 outings (1W 4D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 1.14 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
Juventude
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Juventude in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 11W 6D 11L in their last 28 games (1.39 PPG), while Juventude have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Juventude away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.93 PPG; Juventude away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Juventude have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
3
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Juventude?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Juventude have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Vasco DA Gama 1-3 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Juventude?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 57%, Juventude 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Vasco DA Gama) and 50% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Juventude in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Vasco DA Gama's games and 71% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 50% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Juventude tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Juventude in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasco DA Gama and Juventude share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 29, as Vasco DA Gama and Juventude drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.75 xG and Juventude 0.85 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.10 / defence 1.13 against Juventude attack 0.77 / defence 1.19, drawn from 65/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 59% | Draw 23% | Juventude 18%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 46%, Juventude 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Juventude's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.39 PPG, Juventude 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.