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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Vasco DA Gama run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Internacional.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasco DA Gama beat Internacional 5-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.61 xG and Internacional 1.36 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.04 / defence 1.38 against Internacional attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 43% | Draw 24% | Internacional 32%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 52%, Internacional 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Internacional's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.26 PPG, Internacional 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights