Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vasco DA Gama face Gremio.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama host Gremio at Estádio São Januário in Serie A (matchday 8). Kick-off is Sunday 22 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Vasco DA Gama — last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Gremio have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Gremio away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vasco DA Gama at 0.90 PPG versus Gremio's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Vasco DA Gama's games and 60% of Gremio's (from Vasco DA Gama's last 10 home games and Gremio's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Vasco DA Gama, 3 for Gremio and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 20 Nov 2025, ended Vasco DA Gama 0–2 Gremio — a Gremio win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Gremio in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 49% versus Gremio 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 53% | Gremio 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.72 xG and Gremio 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.147 / defence 1.123 | Gremio attack 0.973 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.101. Data: built from Vasco DA Gama's last 45 games and Gremio's last 45.
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 50% | Draw 24% | Gremio 27%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.02 | Draw 4.21 | Gremio 3.75. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Vasco DA Gama's last 10 home games and Gremio's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vasco DA Gama 60% (last 10 home games) | Gremio 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 8 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 50% | Draw 24% | Gremio 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.72 / Gremio 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.147 / def 1.123 | Gremio attack 0.973 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Gremio xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio FAQs
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Vasco DA Gama 2 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 8) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 50% chance of winning, Gremio a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Gremio will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 1.15x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vasco DA Gama's last 45 games and Gremio's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
50%
2.02
24%
4.21
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.93
1.20
Gremio xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
5%
21.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.20 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasco DA Gama's recent record stands at 27W 14D 35L from 76 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Gremio, meanwhile, have gone 25W 19D 32L across 76 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasco DA Gama on 1.25 PPG, Gremio on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vasco DA Gama have managed 18W 9D 11L from their last 38 home games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gremio's away record stands at 7W 12D 19L across their last 38 away games, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama (Home) vs Gremio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio Form FAQs
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Gremio in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 27W 14D 35L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Gremio have gone 25W 19D 32L in their last 76 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Gremio away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.66 PPG; Gremio away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasco DA Gama have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Gremio?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, Gremio have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Gremio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Gremio 1-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Gremio?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 53%, Gremio 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasco DA Gama) and 45% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 26% of games; Gremio in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vasco DA Gama and Gremio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 55% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vasco DA Gama and Gremio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 45% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Gremio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 76% of Gremio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Gremio 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Gremio 2-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.72 xG and Gremio 1.20 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.15 / defence 1.12 against Gremio attack 0.97 / defence 1.05, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 50% | Draw 24% | Gremio 27%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 53%, Gremio 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Gremio's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG, Gremio 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.