Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Goias – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Goias at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasco DA Gama vs Goias fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Goias make the trip to Estádio São Januário to face Vasco DA Gama in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 23 June 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Goias's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Goias's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.04 xG and Goias 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.726 / defence 1.469 | Goias attack 0.789 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.084. Vasco DA Gama's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Vasco DA Gama games / 48 Goias games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 28% | Draw 34% | Goias 38%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Goias 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Goias as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Goias if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Goias | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jun 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 28% | Draw 34% | Goias 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.04 / Goias 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 0.726 / def 1.469 | Goias attack 0.789 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Goias (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Goias xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Goias kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Goias kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 23 June 2023 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Goias?
Vasco DA Gama 0 - 1 Goias.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Goias being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Goias part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Goias is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Goias?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 28% chance of winning, Goias a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Goias the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Goias?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Goias will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Goias have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Goias?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Goias in?
Goias (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Goias away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 0.73x the league average against Goias's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Goias's attack (0.79x) against Vasco DA Gama's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Goias Win
28%
3.58
34%
2.98
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.30
1.26
Goias xG
3.58
28%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.56
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Goias?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Goias expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.26 for Goias, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Goias?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
Goias
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
1
Goias
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Goias?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Goias have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Goias last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Goias 1-1 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Goias?
Goias have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Goias away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Goias edge out Vasco DA Gama 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Goias beat Vasco DA Gama 0-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.04 xG and Goias 1.26 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasco DA Gama fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 0.73 / defence 1.47 against Goias attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 28% | Draw 34% | Goias 38%, with Goias to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.