Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Atletico Paranaense travel to Estádio São Januário to take on Vasco DA Gama. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 27 August 2024, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama at Estádio São Januário this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atletico Paranaense stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Vasco DA Gama are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vasco DA Gama, 2 for Atletico Paranaense and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Atletico Paranaense trading profile (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 49% versus Atletico Paranaense 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vasco DA Gama 41% | Atletico Paranaense 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.44 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.193 / defence 1.111 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.008 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.042. Data: 60 Vasco DA Gama games / 59 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 43% | Draw 26% | Atletico Paranaense 31%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Atletico Paranaense 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Atletico Paranaense lead the H2H ledger, but Vasco DA Gama carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Vasco DA Gama 50% | Atletico Paranaense 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Aug 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 43% | Draw 26% | Atletico Paranaense 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.44 / Atletico Paranaense 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.193 / def 1.111 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.008 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Atletico Paranaense xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 01:00 on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
Vasco DA Gama 2 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 43% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (3 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 1 | Atletico Paranaense 2W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Atletico Paranaense in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vasco DA Gama's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Atletico Paranaense's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.0%), 0-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.82
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.61
1.17
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.17 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasco DA Gama come into this having played 59 games, going 19W 13D 27L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atletico Paranaense sit at 1.44 PPG from 59 outings (22W 19D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasco DA Gama on 1.19 PPG, Atletico Paranaense on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasco DA Gama's home form reads 15W 5D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atletico Paranaense have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (8W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.29 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 19W 13D 27L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 22W 19D 18L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.67 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasco DA Gama and Atletico Paranaense runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 11 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasco DA Gama have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Atletico Paranaense specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Vasco DA Gama
1
Draws
2
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Atletico Paranaense?
From 5 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Atletico Paranaense.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 47%, Atletico Paranaense 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Vasco DA Gama) and 30% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 27% of games; Atletico Paranaense in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 47% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 30% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vasco DA Gama edge out Atletico Paranaense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Atletico Paranaense 2-1 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.44 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.17 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.19 / defence 1.11 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 43% | Draw 26% | Atletico Paranaense 31%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 41%, Atletico Paranaense 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.19 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.