Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico-MG – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 1.00x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico-MG's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.31
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.42
1.05
Atletico-MG xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
7%
14.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.05 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.