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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sport Recife and Internacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 10, as Sport Recife and Internacional drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.91 xG and Internacional 1.29 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.56 / defence 1.46 against Internacional attack 1.07 / defence 1.19, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 25% | Draw 32% | Internacional 43%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights