Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 27

Kick-off

Sun 5 Oct 2025

20:00

Venue

Estadio Do MorumBIS

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sao Paulo Win

38%

Sao Paulo

2.61

31%

Draw

3.21

30%

Palmeiras

3.28

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.9%

Home win

Most likely

0 – 0

14.1%

Draw

1 – 1

13.4%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.05

Sao Paulo xG

Total xG

1.96

0.90

Palmeiras xG

38%
31%
30%
Sao PauloDrawPalmeiras

2.61

38%

Home win

3.21

31%

Draw

3.28

30%

Away win

Goals Markets

58%

Over 1.5

1.72

42%

Under 1.5

2.38

31%

Over 2.5

3.23

69%

Under 2.5

1.45

14%

Over 3.5

7.14

86%

Under 3.5

1.16

5%

Over 4.5

20.00

95%

Under 4.5

1.05

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

39%

BTTS Yes

2.58

61%

BTTS No

1.63

Clean Sheet

40%

Sao Paulo

2.47

35%

Palmeiras

2.87

Win to Nil

16%

Sao Paulo

6.43

11%

Palmeiras

9.41

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 14.1 12.8 5.8 1.7 0.4 0.1
1 14.9 13.4 6.1 1.8 0.4 0.1
2 7.8 7.1 3.2 1.0 0.2
3 2.8 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.054
λ Away (xG) 0.904
Total xG 1.958
League avg home goals 1.377
League avg away goals 0.992
Sao Paulo attack strength 0.952
Sao Paulo defence strength 0.855
Palmeiras attack strength 1.065
Palmeiras defence strength 0.804
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 64 / 62