Sao Paulo vs Juventude – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sao Paulo's attack rating (1.21) and Juventude's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (1.08x) against Sao Paulo's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.38
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
3.25
1.14
Juventude xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
2%
43.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.14 for Juventude, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.