Sao Paulo 1-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sao Paulo at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sao Paulo vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gremio make the trip to MorumBIS to face Sao Paulo in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Thursday 18 July 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sao Paulo's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sao Paulo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sao Paulo's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at MorumBIS this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MorumBIS.
Gremio have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gremio have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Sao Paulo. A 1.20 PPG lead over Gremio (1.70 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Sao Paulo 2W, Gremio 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 3–0 with Sao Paulo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sao Paulo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Gremio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 50% versus Gremio 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 48% | Gremio 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.74 xG and Gremio 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 1.071 / defence 0.794 | Gremio attack 0.792 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.077. Sao Paulo's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Sao Paulo games / 52 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 62% | Draw 26% | Gremio 13%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 1.61 | Draw 3.85 | Gremio 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Sao Paulo (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sao Paulo 40% | Gremio 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: MorumBIS • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 62% | Draw 26% | Gremio 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 42% | xG Sao Paulo 1.74 / Gremio 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 1.071 / def 0.794 | Gremio attack 0.792 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Gremio xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Gremio kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Gremio kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 18 July 2024 at MorumBIS.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Gremio?
Sao Paulo 1 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at MorumBIS.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Gremio part of?
Sao Paulo vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 62% chance of winning, Gremio a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sao Paulo and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Gremio?
Record (4 meetings): Sao Paulo 2W | Draws 0 | Gremio 2W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Gremio in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Gremio (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sao Paulo's attack rating (1.07) and Gremio's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.79x) against Sao Paulo's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 54/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
62%
1.62
26%
3.87
13%
7.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.42
0.68
Gremio xG
1.62
62%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
7.96
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
17%
5.72
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
2%
45.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.68 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Gremio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sao Paulo come into this having played 52 games, going 21W 14D 17L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Sao Paulo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.52 PPG from 52 outings (24W 7D 21L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Sao Paulo against 1.52 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sao Paulo's home form reads 16W 4D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Sao Paulo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 1.00 points per game from 25 outings (7W 4D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.40 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Gremio in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 21W 14D 17L in their last 52 games (1.48 PPG), while Gremio have gone 24W 7D 21L in their last 52 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Gremio away?
Sao Paulo's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 2.08 PPG; Gremio away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Gremio in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gremio won 3-0 on 2 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sao Paulo have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Sao Paulo
0
Draws
4
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 5, Gremio have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Sao Paulo 2-0 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Gremio?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 44%, Gremio 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sao Paulo) and 68% (Gremio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 28% of games; Gremio in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 64% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Sao Paulo's matches and 68% of Gremio's.
Do Sao Paulo and Gremio tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Gremio in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sao Paulo edge out Gremio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Gremio 1-0 at MorumBIS, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.74 xG and Gremio 0.68 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.07 / defence 0.79 against Gremio attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 54/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 62% | Draw 26% | Gremio 13%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 48%, Gremio 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gremio's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.48 PPG, Gremio 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.