Sao Paulo 0-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Sao Paulo welcome Cuiaba to MorumBIS. Kick-off is set for Thursday 20 June 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Sao Paulo's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at MorumBIS this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MorumBIS. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sao Paulo are significantly better at MorumBIS than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sao Paulo 1.50 PPG, Cuiaba 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Sao Paulo's 30% rate and Cuiaba's 10% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sao Paulo, 1 for Cuiaba and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sao Paulo trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cuiaba trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 51% versus Cuiaba 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 46% | Cuiaba 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.54 xG and Cuiaba 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 1.040 / defence 0.842 | Cuiaba attack 1.162 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.173. Data: 47 Sao Paulo games / 47 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 45% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 27%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Cuiaba 3.70. Sao Paulo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 55% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
Poisson rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 1.7 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sao Paulo 30% | Cuiaba 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: MorumBIS • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Jun 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 45% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Sao Paulo 1.54 / Cuiaba 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 1.040 / def 0.842 | Cuiaba attack 1.162 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Cuiaba xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 20 June 2024 at MorumBIS.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Sao Paulo 0 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at MorumBIS.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba part of?
Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 45% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sao Paulo and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Cuiaba?
Record (6 meetings): Sao Paulo 1W | Draws 4 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Cuiaba in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sao Paulo's attack rating (1.04) and Cuiaba's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.47
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.69
1.15
Cuiaba xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.15 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sao Paulo's recent record stands at 27W 26D 23L from 76 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 32L across 76 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sao Paulo on 1.41 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sao Paulo have managed 21W 9D 8L from 38 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Sao Paulo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 12W 6D 20L across 38 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.93 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 27W 26D 23L in their last 76 games (1.41 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Cuiaba away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.89 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Cuiaba have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Sao Paulo
4
Draws
3
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 1, Cuiaba have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2024, when Cuiaba 2-0 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 45%, Cuiaba 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sao Paulo) and 34% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 26% of games; Cuiaba in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 34% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 34% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Sao Paulo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Sao Paulo 0-1 at MorumBIS, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.54 xG and Cuiaba 1.15 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sao Paulo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.04 / defence 0.84 against Cuiaba attack 1.16 / defence 1.19, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 45% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 27%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 46%, Cuiaba 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cuiaba's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.41 PPG, Cuiaba 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.