Sao Paulo 3-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Coritiba travel to Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo to take on Sao Paulo. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 October 2022, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sao Paulo's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo this season.
Coritiba — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Coritiba have gone 0W 0D 10L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Sao Paulo) versus 1.20 (Coritiba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sao Paulo, 0 for Coritiba and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sao Paulo trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Coritiba trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 55% versus Coritiba 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 42% | Coritiba 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 2.21 xG and Coritiba 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 1.066 / defence 1.056 | Coritiba attack 0.656 / defence 1.607. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 0.939. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.607 — this is suppressing Sao Paulo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Sao Paulo games / 31 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 73% | Draw 18% | Coritiba 9%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | Coritiba 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Sao Paulo (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sao Paulo 40% | Coritiba 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 73% | Draw 18% | Coritiba 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 43% | xG Sao Paulo 2.21 / Coritiba 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 1.066 / def 1.056 | Coritiba attack 0.656 / def 1.607 | league avg home 1.287 / away 0.939 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Coritiba xG
43%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Coritiba kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 21 October 2022 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Sao Paulo 3 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Coritiba part of?
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 73% chance of winning, Coritiba a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sao Paulo and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Coritiba?
Record (1 meetings): Sao Paulo 0W | Draws 1 | Coritiba 0W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Coritiba in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Coritiba (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sao Paulo's attack at 1.07x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 1.61x — combine the two and it projects 2.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 3-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
73%
1.37
18%
5.67
9%
10.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.85
0.65
Coritiba xG
1.37
73%
Home win
5.67
18%
Draw
10.63
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
11%
9.07
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
1%
96.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 0.65 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sao Paulo come into this having played 31 games, going 9W 14D 8L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Coritiba sit at 1.10 PPG from 31 outings (10W 4D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sao Paulo on 1.32 PPG, Coritiba on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sao Paulo's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Coritiba have taken 0.13 points per game from 15 outings (0W 2D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sao Paulo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.00 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 9W 14D 8L in their last 31 games (1.32 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 10W 4D 17L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Coritiba away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.53 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sao Paulo and Coritiba runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sao Paulo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Sao Paulo
2
Draws
0
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 3, Coritiba have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2026, when Coritiba 0-1 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Coritiba?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 47%, Coritiba 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sao Paulo) and 53% (Coritiba). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 27% of games; Coritiba in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 47% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sao Paulo's matches and 53% of Coritiba's.
Do Sao Paulo and Coritiba tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sao Paulo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Coritiba 3-1 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 2.21 xG and Coritiba 0.65 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.07 / defence 1.06 against Coritiba attack 0.66 / defence 1.61, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 73% | Draw 18% | Coritiba 9%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 42%, Coritiba 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Coritiba's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.32 PPG, Coritiba 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.