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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 25

Kick-off

Tue 30 Sep 2025

00:00

Venue

Estadio Do MorumBIS

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sao Paulo Win

53%

Sao Paulo

1.87

27%

Draw

3.69

20%

Ceara

5.11

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

16.2%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.1%

Draw

2 – 0

11.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.43

Sao Paulo xG

Total xG

2.18

0.75

Ceara xG

53%
27%
20%
Sao PauloDrawCeara

1.87

53%

Home win

3.69

27%

Draw

5.11

20%

Away win

Goals Markets

64%

Over 1.5

1.56

36%

Under 1.5

2.78

37%

Over 2.5

2.70

63%

Under 2.5

1.59

18%

Over 3.5

5.56

82%

Under 3.5

1.22

7%

Over 4.5

14.29

93%

Under 4.5

1.08

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

40%

BTTS Yes

2.50

60%

BTTS No

1.67

Clean Sheet

47%

Sao Paulo

2.11

24%

Ceara

4.18

Win to Nil

25%

Sao Paulo

3.96

5%

Ceara

21.36

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.3 8.5 3.2 0.8 0.1
1 16.2 12.1 4.5 1.1 0.2
2 11.6 8.7 3.2 0.8 0.2
3 5.5 4.1 1.5 0.4 0.1
4 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.1
5 0.6 0.4 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.430
λ Away (xG) 0.747
Total xG 2.177
League avg home goals 1.388
League avg away goals 1.046
Sao Paulo attack strength 1.067
Sao Paulo defence strength 0.794
Ceara attack strength 0.900
Ceara defence strength 0.966
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 62 / 23