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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Sun 14 Sep 2025

21:30

Venue

Estadio Do MorumBIS

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Botafogo Win

28%

Sao Paulo

3.64

30%

Draw

3.34

43%

Botafogo

2.35

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

14.7%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

13.2%

Draw

0 – 0

12.2%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.90

Sao Paulo xG

Total xG

2.10

1.20

Botafogo xG

28%
30%
43%
Sao PauloDrawBotafogo

3.64

28%

Home win

3.34

30%

Draw

2.35

43%

Away win

Goals Markets

62%

Over 1.5

1.61

38%

Under 1.5

2.63

35%

Over 2.5

2.86

65%

Under 2.5

1.54

16%

Over 3.5

6.25

84%

Under 3.5

1.19

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

42%

BTTS Yes

2.40

58%

BTTS No

1.72

Clean Sheet

30%

Sao Paulo

3.31

41%

Botafogo

2.47

Win to Nil

8%

Sao Paulo

12.04

17%

Botafogo

5.79

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.2 14.7 8.8 3.5 1.0 0.3
1 11.0 13.2 7.9 3.2 0.9 0.2
2 5.0 6.0 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1
3 1.5 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.1
4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.903
λ Away (xG) 1.198
Total xG 2.101
League avg home goals 1.345
League avg away goals 1.087
Sao Paulo attack strength 1.095
Sao Paulo defence strength 0.860
Botafogo attack strength 1.282
Botafogo defence strength 0.613
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 60 / 58