Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 21

Kick-off

Mon 25 Aug 2025

00:30

Venue

Estadio Do MorumBIS

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sao Paulo Win

48%

Sao Paulo

2.09

27%

Draw

3.67

25%

Atletico-MG

4.02

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

13.7%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.7%

Draw

0 – 0

9.9%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.39

Sao Paulo xG

Total xG

2.32

0.92

Atletico-MG xG

48%
27%
25%
Sao PauloDrawAtletico-MG

2.09

48%

Home win

3.67

27%

Draw

4.02

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

67%

Over 1.5

1.49

33%

Under 1.5

3.03

41%

Over 2.5

2.44

59%

Under 2.5

1.69

20%

Over 3.5

5.00

80%

Under 3.5

1.25

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

45%

BTTS Yes

2.21

55%

BTTS No

1.83

Clean Sheet

40%

Sao Paulo

2.52

25%

Atletico-MG

4.03

Win to Nil

19%

Sao Paulo

5.26

6%

Atletico-MG

16.19

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.9 9.1 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.1
1 13.7 12.7 5.9 1.8 0.4 0.1
2 9.6 8.8 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.1
3 4.5 4.1 1.9 0.6 0.1
4 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.2
5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.394
λ Away (xG) 0.923
Total xG 2.317
League avg home goals 1.277
League avg away goals 1.127
Sao Paulo attack strength 1.093
Sao Paulo defence strength 0.891
Atletico-MG attack strength 0.919
Atletico-MG defence strength 0.998
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 58 / 56