🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Santos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sport Recife.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santos beat Sport Recife 3-0 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.35 xG and Sport Recife 0.81 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Santos beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sport Recife landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.73 / defence 1.04 against Sport Recife attack 0.77 / defence 1.26, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santos 49% | Draw 28% | Sport Recife 23%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 46%, Sport Recife 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santos's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Sport Recife's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Santos arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.49. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Santos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Sport Recife (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights