Santos 2-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Santos at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Santos face RB Bragantino.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Urbano Caldeira plays host to Santos versus RB Bragantino in Serie A (matchday 15). Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 22:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Santos have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Santos's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
RB Bragantino's record over their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
RB Bragantino's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Santos, 1.20 for RB Bragantino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, RB Bragantino edge it 3 wins to 2, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Santos 2–2 RB Bragantino — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 47% versus RB Bragantino 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 50% | RB Bragantino 58%). Note also that RB Bragantino surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Santos recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.41 xG and RB Bragantino 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.994 / defence 1.019 | RB Bragantino attack 0.877 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.097. Data: built from Santos's last 52 games and RB Bragantino's last 52.
Result probabilities: Santos 47% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 26%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.13 | Draw 3.68 | RB Bragantino 3.85. Santos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santos are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santos if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Santos 40% (last 10 home games) | RB Bragantino 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 15 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 47% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Santos 1.41 / RB Bragantino 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.994 / def 1.019 | RB Bragantino attack 0.877 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Santos (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.98
RB Bragantino xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Santos vs RB Bragantino FAQs
What time does Santos vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Santos vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs RB Bragantino?
Santos 2 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Santos vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs RB Bragantino part of?
Santos vs RB Bragantino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 15) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 47% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Santos and RB Bragantino will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Santos vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Santos's attack rating (0.99) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.88x) against Santos's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Santos's last 52 games and RB Bragantino's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.68
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Santos xG
Total xG
2.39
0.98
RB Bragantino xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Santos vs RB Bragantino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Santos and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Santos and 0.98 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Santos come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 11D 15L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.26 PPG from 38 outings (14W 6D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Santos against 1.26 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Santos's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across their last 19 home games, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 0.89 points per game from their last 19 away games (5W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Santos are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.18 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Santos (Home) vs RB Bragantino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Santos
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Santos vs RB Bragantino Form FAQs
What form are Santos and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 14W 6D 18L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or RB Bragantino away?
Santos's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.58 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santos have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Santos
3
Draws
4
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Santos vs RB Bragantino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and RB Bragantino?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Santos have won 3, RB Bragantino have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and RB Bragantino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: RB Bragantino 2-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Santos see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 42%, RB Bragantino 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Santos) and 58% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Santos have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Santos vs RB Bragantino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Santos and RB Bragantino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Santos's recent matches and 63% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Santos and RB Bragantino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Santos's recent games and 58% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and RB Bragantino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Santos's recent matches and 74% of RB Bragantino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Santos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over RB Bragantino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat RB Bragantino 2-0 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.41 xG and RB Bragantino 0.98 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. RB Bragantino landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against RB Bragantino attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 47% | Draw 27% | RB Bragantino 26%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 50%, RB Bragantino 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santos 1.24 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock. Santos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.