Santos 0-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santos vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 8 as Santos welcome Palmeiras to Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Santos's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Urbano Caldeira this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Santos) versus 1.70 (Palmeiras). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Santos, 2 for Palmeiras and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Santos trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 32% versus Palmeiras 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 29% | Palmeiras 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.19 xG and Palmeiras 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.221 / defence 0.824 | Palmeiras attack 1.189 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 0.934. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 45 Santos games / 45 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 42% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 28%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Palmeiras 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santos at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Santos 10% | Palmeiras 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 42% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Santos 1.19 / Palmeiras 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.221 / def 0.824 | Palmeiras attack 1.189 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.331 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Santos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Palmeiras xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Palmeiras kick off?
Santos vs Palmeiras kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Palmeiras?
Santos 0 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Santos vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Palmeiras part of?
Santos vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 42% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Santos and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Palmeiras?
Record (2 meetings): Santos 0W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 2W.
What form are Santos and Palmeiras in?
Santos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Santos's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.25
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Santos xG
Total xG
2.10
0.92
Palmeiras xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
8%
11.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Santos and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Santos and 0.92 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Santos's recent record stands at 12W 14D 12L from 38 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 20W 6D 12L across 38 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Santos have managed 9W 6D 4L from 19 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Santos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 9W 3D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Santos are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.53 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Santos have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 12W 14D 12L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 20W 6D 12L in their last 38 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Palmeiras away?
Santos's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.74 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Santos or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santos and Palmeiras runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Santos's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Santos
2
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Santos have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Palmeiras 1-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santos see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Santos 21% BTTS, Palmeiras 42%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Santos) and 53% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Palmeiras in 42%; Santos have failed to score in 42% of games; Palmeiras in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Santos's recent matches and 42% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Santos's recent games and 53% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palmeiras defy the odds to beat Santos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Santos 0-1 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.19 xG and Palmeiras 0.92 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Santos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.22 / defence 0.82 against Palmeiras attack 1.19 / defence 0.73, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 42% | Draw 31% | Palmeiras 28%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 29%, Palmeiras 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.