Santos 0-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santos vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 33 as Santos welcome Palmeiras to Vila Belmiro. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Santos's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Vila Belmiro this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Vila Belmiro this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Santos) versus 2.10 (Palmeiras). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Palmeiras have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for Santos.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Palmeiras have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Santos trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Palmeiras trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 60% versus Palmeiras 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 57% | Palmeiras 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 0.92 xG and Palmeiras 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.970 / defence 1.061 | Palmeiras attack 1.142 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.146. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.655 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 70 Santos games / 70 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 23% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 45%. Fair-value odds: Santos 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Palmeiras 2.22. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Santos 70% | Palmeiras 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Vila Belmiro • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 23% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Santos 0.92 / Palmeiras 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.970 / def 1.061 | Palmeiras attack 1.142 / def 0.655 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Palmeiras xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Palmeiras kick off?
Santos vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:30 on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at Vila Belmiro.
What was the final score in Santos vs Palmeiras?
Santos 0 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Santos vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Vila Belmiro.
What competition is Santos vs Palmeiras part of?
Santos vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 23% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Santos and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Palmeiras?
Record (9 meetings): Santos 2W | Draws 2 | Palmeiras 5W.
What form are Santos and Palmeiras in?
Santos (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Santos's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
23%
4.41
32%
3.14
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Santos xG
Total xG
2.31
1.39
Palmeiras xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
6%
17.68
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.8 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Santos and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Santos and 1.39 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Santos's recent record stands at 24W 21D 25L from 70 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 43W 16D 11L across 70 games — 2.07 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santos heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Santos have managed 14W 12D 9L from 35 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 19W 8D 8L across 35 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Santos are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.74 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Santos have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 24W 21D 25L in their last 70 games (1.33 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 43W 16D 11L in their last 70 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.54 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Santos or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santos and Palmeiras runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 28 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Santos's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Santos
3
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Santos have won 2, Palmeiras have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2026, when Santos 0-0 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 54%, Palmeiras 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Santos) and 57% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Palmeiras in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Palmeiras?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Santos's games and 57% of Palmeiras's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Santos vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Santos's recent games and 57% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Santos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos and Palmeiras finished level at 0-0 at Vila Belmiro, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 0.92 xG and Palmeiras 1.39 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Santos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Palmeiras landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Palmeiras attack 1.14 / defence 0.66, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 23% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 45%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 57%, Palmeiras 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Palmeiras's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.