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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Thu 2 Oct 2025

01:30

Venue

Estadio Urbano Caldeira

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Gremio Win

26%

Santos

3.88

26%

Draw

3.85

48%

Gremio

2.07

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

12.1%

Away win

1 – 2

9.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.02

Santos xG

Total xG

2.51

1.50

Gremio xG

26%
26%
48%
SantosDrawGremio

3.88

26%

Home win

3.85

26%

Draw

2.07

48%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

2.02

50%

BTTS No

1.98

Clean Sheet

22%

Santos

4.46

36%

Gremio

2.77

Win to Nil

6%

Santos

17.31

17%

Gremio

5.74

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.1 12.1 9.0 4.5 1.7 0.5
1 8.2 12.3 9.2 4.6 1.7 0.5
2 4.2 6.3 4.7 2.3 0.9 0.3
3 1.4 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.019
λ Away (xG) 1.496
Total xG 2.515
League avg home goals 1.364
League avg away goals 1.036
Santos attack strength 0.726
Santos defence strength 1.196
Gremio attack strength 1.207
Gremio defence strength 1.029
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 24 / 63