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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Santos and Fortaleza EC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 31, as Santos and Fortaleza EC drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.24 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.95 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santos 39% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 33%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 52%, Fortaleza EC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santos's trading profile (29 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (29 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Santos 1.10 PPG, Fortaleza EC 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights