Santos 0-3 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santos vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fluminense make the trip to Estádio Urbano Caldeira to face Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Santos have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Santos's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Urbano Caldeira this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fluminense (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Santos against 1.20 for Fluminense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Santos lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 0–1 with Fluminense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 49% versus Fluminense 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 48% | Fluminense 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.46 xG and Fluminense 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.997 / defence 1.123 | Fluminense attack 0.730 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.116. Data: 73 Santos games / 73 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 50% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 23%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Fluminense 4.35. Santos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santos at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Santos 70% | Fluminense 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Nov 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 50% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Santos 1.46 / Fluminense 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.997 / def 1.123 | Fluminense attack 0.730 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Santos (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Fluminense xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Fluminense kick off?
Santos vs Fluminense kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 29 November 2023 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Fluminense?
Santos 0 - 3 Fluminense.
Where is Santos vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Fluminense part of?
Santos vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 50% chance of winning, Fluminense a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Santos and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Fluminense?
Record (5 meetings): Santos 1W | Draws 2 | Fluminense 2W.
What form are Santos and Fluminense in?
Santos (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Fluminense (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Santos's attack at 1.00x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.73x) against Santos's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
50%
2.00
27%
3.76
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Santos xG
Total xG
2.38
0.92
Fluminense xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
5%
18.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Santos and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Santos and 0.92 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Santos's recent record stands at 23W 21D 29L from 73 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 36W 15D 22L across 73 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fluminense by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Santos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Santos have managed 14W 12D 10L from 36 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 11W 8D 17L across 36 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Attack vs Defence
Santos are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.49 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 23W 21D 29L in their last 73 games (1.23 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 36W 15D 22L in their last 73 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Fluminense away?
Santos's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.50 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Santos or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Fluminense in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 0-3 on 29 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santos have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Santos
3
Draws
5
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Fluminense?
From 9 meetings on record, Santos have won 1, Fluminense have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Santos 2-3 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 56%, Fluminense 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Santos) and 42% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Fluminense in 31%; Santos have failed to score in 28% of games; Fluminense in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Santos's recent matches and 36% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Santos's recent games and 42% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Fluminense tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fluminense run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Santos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Santos 0-3 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.46 xG and Fluminense 0.92 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Santos fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Fluminense outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Fluminense attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 50% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 23%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 48%, Fluminense 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fluminense's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.