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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Santos and Bahia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 2, as Santos and Bahia drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.29 xG and Bahia 1.09 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bahia outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Bahia attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Santos 37% | Draw 35% | Bahia 28%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 55%, Bahia 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Santos 1.13 PPG, Bahia 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights