Remo 1-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Remo at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Remo face Vasco DA Gama.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Vasco DA Gama travel to Mangueirão to take on Remo in Serie A (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Vasco DA Gama — last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Vasco DA Gama have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.89 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 1.035 / defence 1.241 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.151 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.042. Vasco DA Gama's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Remo's projected output up. Remo's defence rating of 1.241 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vasco DA Gama's projected output up. Data: built from Remo's last 10 games and Vasco DA Gama's last 48.
Result probabilities: Remo 47% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 30%. Fair-value odds: Remo 2.13 | Draw 4.41 | Vasco DA Gama 3.29. Remo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Remo are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Remo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, matchday 11 | Venue: Mangueirão • Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 47% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Remo 1.89 / Vasco DA Gama 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 1.035 / def 1.241 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.151 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Remo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Vasco DA Gama xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Remo vs Vasco DA Gama FAQs
What time does Remo vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Remo vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Mangueirão.
What was the final score in Remo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Remo 1 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Remo vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Mangueirão.
What competition is Remo vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Remo vs Vasco DA Gama is a Serie A fixture (matchday 11) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 47% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Remo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Remo and Vasco DA Gama will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Remo vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Remo's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Vasco DA Gama's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Remo's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Remo's last 10 games and Vasco DA Gama's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Remo Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.41
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Remo xG
Total xG
3.38
1.49
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
5%
21.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Remo vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Remo and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Remo and 1.49 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Pre-Season
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Remo (Home) vs Vasco DA Gama (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Remo
Pre-Season
Vasco DA Gama
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2026. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Remo
2
Draws
0
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Remo vs Vasco DA Gama H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Vasco DA Gama?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Remo have won 0, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Remo and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Vasco DA Gama 0-0 Remo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Remo and Vasco DA Gama share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mangueirão, Regular Season - 11, as Remo and Vasco DA Gama drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 1.89 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.49 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Remo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 1.03 / defence 1.24 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.15 / defence 1.21, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Remo 47% | Draw 23% | Vasco DA Gama 30%, with Remo to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.