Remo 1-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Remo vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Evandro Almeida plays host to Remo versus RB Bragantino in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 18 October 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Remo (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Estádio Evandro Almeida, Remo have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Remo are significantly better at Estádio Evandro Almeida than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RB Bragantino's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. RB Bragantino are 0.50 PPG clear of Remo in recent Serie A fixtures (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Remo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, RB Bragantino in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Remo 0W, RB Bragantino 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 2–4 with RB Bragantino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Remo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Remo 60% versus RB Bragantino 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Remo 50% | RB Bragantino 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.09 xG and RB Bragantino 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.813 / defence 1.195 | RB Bragantino attack 0.900 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.130. Data: 30 Remo games / 68 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Remo 31% | Draw 32% | RB Bragantino 37%. Fair-value odds: Remo 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | RB Bragantino 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Remo 60% | RB Bragantino 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Evandro Almeida • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 31% | Draw 32% | RB Bragantino 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Remo 1.09 / RB Bragantino 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.813 / def 1.195 | RB Bragantino attack 0.900 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.22
RB Bragantino xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Remo vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Remo vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Estádio Evandro Almeida.
What was the final score in Remo vs RB Bragantino?
Remo 1 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Remo vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Evandro Almeida.
What competition is Remo vs RB Bragantino part of?
Remo vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 31% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Remo vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Remo and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Remo vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and RB Bragantino?
Record (1 meetings): Remo 0W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 1W.
What form are Remo and RB Bragantino in?
Remo (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Remo's attack at 0.81x the league average against RB Bragantino's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.90x) against Remo's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 30/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
31%
3.23
32%
3.13
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Remo xG
Total xG
2.31
1.22
RB Bragantino xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Remo and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Remo and 1.22 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Remo have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 5W 10D 15L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
RB Bragantino's form line: 11W 7D 12L from 30 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, RB Bragantino are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Remo.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Remo have posted 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (3W 6D 6L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Remo are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.27 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Remo have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Remo and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Remo have gone 5W 10D 15L in their last 30 games (0.83 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Remo at home or RB Bragantino away?
RB Bragantino's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Remo at home: 1.00 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Remo
1
Draws
1
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and RB Bragantino?
From 2 meetings on record, Remo have won 0, RB Bragantino have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Remo and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Remo 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Remo and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Remo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Remo 67%, RB Bragantino 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Remo) and 33% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Remo play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Remo's games and 53% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Remo vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Remo's recent games and 33% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Remo and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Remo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Remo and RB Bragantino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Evandro Almeida, Regular Season - 31, as Remo and RB Bragantino drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 1.09 xG and RB Bragantino 1.22 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against RB Bragantino attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Remo 31% | Draw 32% | RB Bragantino 37%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Remo 50%, RB Bragantino 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Remo's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.