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Dominant RB Bragantino run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Vitoria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Bragantino beat Vitoria 4-0 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.48 xG and Vitoria 1.15 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. RB Bragantino beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitoria landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against Vitoria attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 45% | Draw 26% | Vitoria 30%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 53%, Vitoria 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Bragantino's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Vitoria's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.20 PPG, Vitoria 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Vitoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights