RB Bragantino 2-1 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Vitoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vitoria make the trip to Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid to face RB Bragantino in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 June 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
RB Bragantino (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
RB Bragantino at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.40 xG and Vitoria 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.000 / defence 0.980 | Vitoria attack 0.767 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.099. Data: 48 RB Bragantino games / 10 Vitoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 49% | Draw 29% | Vitoria 21%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Vitoria 4.76. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jun 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 49% | Draw 29% | Vitoria 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG RB Bragantino 1.40 / Vitoria 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.000 / def 0.980 | Vitoria attack 0.767 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Vitoria xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Vitoria kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Vitoria kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 23 June 2024 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Vitoria?
RB Bragantino 2 - 1 Vitoria.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Vitoria part of?
RB Bragantino vs Vitoria is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 49% chance of winning, Vitoria a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both RB Bragantino and Vitoria will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Vitoria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Vitoria in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. RB Bragantino home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.00) and Vitoria's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vitoria's attack (0.77x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
49%
2.02
29%
3.43
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.22
0.83
Vitoria xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
5%
18.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.83 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Vitoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Pre-Season
Vitoria
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: RB Bragantino have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Bragantino won 4-0 on 3 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vitoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
RB Bragantino
0
Draws
2
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Vitoria?
From 5 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 3, Vitoria have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Vitoria last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when RB Bragantino 2-0 Vitoria.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Vitoria?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Vitoria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Vitoria 2-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.40 xG and Vitoria 0.83 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Vitoria attack 0.77 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 49% | Draw 29% | Vitoria 21%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.