RB Bragantino vs Sao Paulo – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Sao Paulo's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (1.07x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
36%
2.77
30%
3.34
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.10
1.03
Sao Paulo xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.03 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.