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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RB Bragantino and Santos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Bragantino and Santos finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.61 xG and Santos 1.22 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.03 / defence 1.31 against Santos attack 0.90 / defence 1.12, drawn from 62/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 46% | Draw 25% | Santos 29%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 56%, Santos 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Bragantino's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Santos's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.30 PPG, Santos 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights