RB Bragantino 0-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Palmeiras travel to Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques to take on RB Bragantino in Serie A (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 April 2026 at 22:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, RB Bragantino have gone 4W 0D 6L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Palmeiras — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: RB Bragantino 1.20 PPG, Palmeiras 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Palmeiras have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 1 for RB Bragantino.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Oct 2025, ended RB Bragantino 1–5 Palmeiras — a Palmeiras win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Palmeiras have won 4 of 8 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 60% versus Palmeiras 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 54% | Palmeiras 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: RB Bragantino surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Palmeiras have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.37 xG and Palmeiras 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.161 / defence 1.108 | Palmeiras attack 1.233 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.021. Palmeiras have an above-average attack rating of 1.233, which lifts their away xG to 1.40. Data: built from RB Bragantino's last 50 games and Palmeiras's last 50.
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 37% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 38%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.72 | Draw 3.93 | Palmeiras 2.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Palmeiras 4 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (RB Bragantino's last 10 home games and Palmeiras's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: RB Bragantino 50% (last 10 home games) | Palmeiras 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 37% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG RB Bragantino 1.37 / Palmeiras 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.161 / def 1.108 | Palmeiras attack 1.233 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Palmeiras xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras FAQs
What time does RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
RB Bragantino 0 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras part of?
RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 37% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both RB Bragantino and Palmeiras will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates RB Bragantino's attack at 1.16x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus RB Bragantino's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from RB Bragantino's last 50 games and Palmeiras's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
37%
2.72
25%
3.93
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.77
1.40
Palmeiras xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
10%
10.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.40 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 24W 20D 32L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 45W 14D 17L from 76 games, 1.96 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RB Bragantino.
Venue Form
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 38 home games (17W 11D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 21W 7D 10L from their last 38 away games — 1.84 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.66 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
RB Bragantino (Home) vs Palmeiras (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras Form FAQs
What form are RB Bragantino and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 games (1.21 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 45W 14D 17L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.63 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.84 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Oct 2025, when Palmeiras won Palmeiras 5-1 RB Bragantino.
RB Bragantino's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
RB Bragantino
3
Draws
6
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Palmeiras?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, RB Bragantino have won 1, Palmeiras have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Palmeiras last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Palmeiras 2-0 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 58%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (RB Bragantino) and 50% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RB Bragantino vs Palmeiras Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RB Bragantino and Palmeiras matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are RB Bragantino and Palmeiras matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Palmeiras matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 71% of Palmeiras's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out RB Bragantino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat RB Bragantino 0-1 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.37 xG and Palmeiras 1.40 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.16 / defence 1.11 against Palmeiras attack 1.23 / defence 0.80, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 37% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 38%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 54%, Palmeiras 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.