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Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out RB Bragantino 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palmeiras beat RB Bragantino 1-2 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 0.94 xG and Palmeiras 0.95 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Palmeiras attack 1.30 / defence 0.68, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 33% | Draw 34% | Palmeiras 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 43%, Palmeiras 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights