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Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Mirassol 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Bragantino beat Mirassol 1-0 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.62 xG and Mirassol 0.90 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mirassol landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Mirassol attack 1.07 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 53% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 20%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights