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Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Juventude 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Bragantino beat Juventude 1-0 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 2.37 xG and Juventude 0.72 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Juventude attack 0.88 / defence 1.72, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 73% | Draw 18% | Juventude 9%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 50%, Juventude 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Bragantino's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.16 PPG, Juventude 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights