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RB Bragantino cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Internacional.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Bragantino beat Internacional 3-1 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. It was 2-0 at the break, with 2 further goals after it. Scorers: Fernando Santos (18') · Juninho Capixaba (45') · Tiago Volpi (52') · B. Aguirre (79'). The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.58 xG and Internacional 1.04 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. RB Bragantino beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against Internacional attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 50% | Draw 26% | Internacional 25%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 54%, Internacional 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 75% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 71% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.21 PPG, Internacional 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

In-Play Signals

RB Bragantino controlled the ball (52%). That matched the side the model favoured, and they converted the territory into the win the numbers expected. RB Bragantino shot more often (18 to 8, 7 on target). The scoring opened before half-time (2-0 at the interval). 2 of the 4 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics