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Internacional cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over RB Bragantino.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Internacional beat RB Bragantino 1-3 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.47 xG and Internacional 1.18 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Internacional outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against Internacional attack 1.02 / defence 1.18, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 43% | Draw 27% | Internacional 30%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Internacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 51%, Internacional 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Bragantino's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Internacional's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.27 PPG, Internacional 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Internacional (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights