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RB Bragantino cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Fluminense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Bragantino beat Fluminense 4-2 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.39 xG and Fluminense 1.57 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. RB Bragantino beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.94 / defence 1.25 against Fluminense attack 1.13 / defence 1.17, drawn from 58/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 34% | Draw 24% | Fluminense 42%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual RB Bragantino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 50%, Fluminense 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Bragantino's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Fluminense's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.20 PPG, Fluminense 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights