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Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out RB Bragantino 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat RB Bragantino 1-2 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 0.99 xG and Flamengo 1.14 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.97 / defence 1.19 against Flamengo attack 1.07 / defence 0.81, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 32% | Draw 30% | Flamengo 39%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 48%, Flamengo 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Bragantino's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Flamengo's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights