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Shock result as RB Bragantino defy the odds to beat Corinthians 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Bragantino beat Corinthians 2-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.23 xG and Corinthians 1.25 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.90 / defence 1.37 against Corinthians attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 36% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 37%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual RB Bragantino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 54%, Corinthians 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Bragantino's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Corinthians's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.16 PPG, Corinthians 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights