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Dominant Bahia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of RB Bragantino.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bahia beat RB Bragantino 0-3 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.24 xG and Bahia 0.71 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. RB Bragantino fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bahia outscored their 0.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against Bahia attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 48% | Draw 32% | Bahia 20%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Bahia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 43%, Bahia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.39 PPG, Bahia 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights