Palmeiras 2-0 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vasco DA Gama make the trip to Allianz Parque to face Palmeiras in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 14 June 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Current Form
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Allianz Parque, Palmeiras have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vasco DA Gama (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vasco DA Gama's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Palmeiras. A 0.80 PPG lead over Vasco DA Gama (2.30 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palmeiras lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 45% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 47% | Vasco DA Gama 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.01 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 0.817 / defence 0.907 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.874 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.166. Data: 45 Palmeiras games / 45 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 36% | Draw 34% | Vasco DA Gama 31%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Vasco DA Gama 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 10% | Vasco DA Gama 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jun 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 36% | Draw 34% | Vasco DA Gama 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Palmeiras 1.01 / Vasco DA Gama 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 0.817 / def 0.907 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.874 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Vasco DA Gama xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 01:30 on Friday 14 June 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Palmeiras 2 - 0 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 36% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (2 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (0.82) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (0.87x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
36%
2.82
34%
2.98
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
1.94
0.92
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.82
36%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.92 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 20W 10D 8L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Vasco DA Gama's form line: 12W 9D 17L from 38 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vasco DA Gama.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.32 PPG from 19 outings (14W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Palmeiras are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vasco DA Gama have gone 3W 7D 9L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palmeiras are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 20W 10D 8L in their last 38 games (1.84 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.32 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
1
Draws
1
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Vasco DA Gama have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 42%, Vasco DA Gama 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Palmeiras) and 32% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 58% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Palmeiras's recent games and 32% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vasco DA Gama.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Vasco DA Gama 2-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.01 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.92 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasco DA Gama landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 0.82 / defence 0.91 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.87 / defence 1.05, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 36% | Draw 34% | Vasco DA Gama 31%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 47%, Vasco DA Gama 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.