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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 8

Kick-off

Sun 11 May 2025

21:30

Venue

Allianz Parque

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Palmeiras Win

40%

Palmeiras

2.53

33%

Draw

3.05

28%

Sao Paulo

3.62

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

15.6%

Home win

Most likely

0 – 0

14.4%

Draw

1 – 1

13.3%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.08

Palmeiras xG

Total xG

1.94

0.85

Sao Paulo xG

40%
33%
28%
PalmeirasDrawSao Paulo

2.53

40%

Home win

3.05

33%

Draw

3.62

28%

Away win

Goals Markets

58%

Over 1.5

1.72

42%

Under 1.5

2.38

31%

Over 2.5

3.23

69%

Under 2.5

1.45

13%

Over 3.5

7.69

87%

Under 3.5

1.15

5%

Over 4.5

20.00

95%

Under 4.5

1.05

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

39%

BTTS Yes

2.58

61%

BTTS No

1.63

Clean Sheet

43%

Palmeiras

2.35

34%

Sao Paulo

2.94

Win to Nil

17%

Palmeiras

5.94

9%

Sao Paulo

10.65

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 14.4 12.3 5.3 1.5 0.3 0.1
1 15.6 13.3 5.7 1.6 0.3 0.1
2 8.4 7.2 3.1 0.9 0.2
3 3.0 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.080
λ Away (xG) 0.855
Total xG 1.935
League avg home goals 1.398
League avg away goals 0.868
Palmeiras attack strength 0.850
Palmeiras defence strength 0.905
Sao Paulo attack strength 1.089
Sao Paulo defence strength 0.909
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 45 / 45