Palmeiras 3-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palmeiras face Juventude.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Juventude travel to Allianz Parque to take on Palmeiras. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 June 2024, 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juventude — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juventude haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Juventude have posted 0W 0D 10L from 10 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Palmeiras are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 2.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Palmeiras's 10% rate and Juventude's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
Palmeiras hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Juventude, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Palmeiras winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Palmeiras and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Juventude in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 45% versus Juventude 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 47% | Juventude 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.70 xG and Juventude 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 0.982 / defence 0.854 | Juventude attack 0.836 / defence 1.334. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.099. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.334 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Palmeiras games / 9 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 58% | Draw 25% | Juventude 16%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Juventude 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 10% | Juventude 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jun 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 58% | Draw 25% | Juventude 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Palmeiras 1.70 / Juventude 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 0.982 / def 0.854 | Juventude attack 0.836 / def 1.334 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Juventude xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Juventude kick off?
Palmeiras vs Juventude kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 23 June 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Palmeiras 3 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Palmeiras vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Juventude part of?
Palmeiras vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 58% chance of winning, Juventude a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Palmeiras and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Juventude?
Record (4 meetings): Palmeiras 3W | Draws 1 | Juventude 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Juventude in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Juventude (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 0.98x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
58%
1.71
25%
3.94
16%
6.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.48
0.78
Juventude xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
6.14
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
3%
33.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.78 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palmeiras come into this having played 38 games, going 20W 10D 8L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 0.58 PPG from 38 outings (3W 13D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. Juventude haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.26 PPG clear of Juventude — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Palmeiras's home form reads 14W 2D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Palmeiras are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.37 points per game from 19 outings (1W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.76 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Juventude
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Juventude in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 20W 10D 8L in their last 38 games (1.84 PPG), while Juventude have gone 3W 13D 22L in their last 38 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Juventude away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.32 PPG; Juventude away: 0.37 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Juventude in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jun 2021, when Palmeiras won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Palmeiras
1
Draws
0
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 7, Juventude have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Juventude 0-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Juventude?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 42%, Juventude 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Palmeiras) and 53% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Juventude in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 47% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Palmeiras's recent games and 53% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Juventude tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Juventude in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Juventude 3-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.70 xG and Juventude 0.78 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 0.98 / defence 0.85 against Juventude attack 0.84 / defence 1.33, drawn from 48/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 58% | Draw 25% | Juventude 16%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 47%, Juventude 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.