Palmeiras 0-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Fluminense travel to Allianz Parque to take on Palmeiras. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Allianz Parque this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Fluminense's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palmeiras 2.00 PPG, Fluminense 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 1, Fluminense 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Fluminense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Palmeiras trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Fluminense trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 41% versus Fluminense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 45% | Fluminense 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.64 xG and Fluminense 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.291 / defence 1.017 | Fluminense attack 0.824 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.053. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 75 Palmeiras games / 75 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 54% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 19%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Fluminense 5.26. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 50% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 54% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Palmeiras 1.64 / Fluminense 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.291 / def 1.017 | Fluminense attack 0.824 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Fluminense xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Fluminense kick off?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Palmeiras 0 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Palmeiras vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Fluminense part of?
Palmeiras vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 54% chance of winning, Fluminense a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Palmeiras and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
Record (5 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 2 | Fluminense 2W.
What form are Palmeiras and Fluminense in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Fluminense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.29x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.70
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.52
0.88
Fluminense xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
4%
27.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.88 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 42W 17D 16L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 27W 18D 30L from 75 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fluminense.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.22 PPG from 37 outings (26W 4D 7L).
On the road, Fluminense have gone 7W 6D 24L from 37 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.11 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 42W 17D 16L in their last 75 games (1.91 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 27W 18D 30L in their last 75 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Fluminense away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.22 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Fluminense in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
3
Draws
4
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 3, Fluminense have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Fluminense 3-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 40%, Fluminense 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Palmeiras) and 35% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fluminense in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 32% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Palmeiras's recent games and 35% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Fluminense tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fluminense defy the odds to beat Palmeiras 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Palmeiras 0-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.64 xG and Fluminense 0.88 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.29 / defence 1.02 against Fluminense attack 0.82 / defence 0.95, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 54% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 19%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 45%, Fluminense 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Fluminense winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.