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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 15

Kick-off

Sun 20 Jul 2025

21:30

Venue

Allianz Parque

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Palmeiras Win

38%

Palmeiras

2.61

33%

Draw

3.07

29%

Atletico-MG

3.43

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

15.8%

Home win

Most likely

0 – 0

15.5%

Draw

1 – 1

13.4%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.02

Palmeiras xG

Total xG

1.86

0.85

Atletico-MG xG

38%
33%
29%
PalmeirasDrawAtletico-MG

2.61

38%

Home win

3.07

33%

Draw

3.43

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

56%

Over 1.5

1.79

44%

Under 1.5

2.27

29%

Over 2.5

3.45

71%

Under 2.5

1.41

12%

Over 3.5

8.33

88%

Under 3.5

1.14

4%

Over 4.5

25.00

96%

Under 4.5

1.04

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

37%

BTTS Yes

2.72

63%

BTTS No

1.58

Clean Sheet

43%

Palmeiras

2.33

36%

Atletico-MG

2.76

Win to Nil

16%

Palmeiras

6.09

11%

Atletico-MG

9.48

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.5 13.1 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.1
1 15.8 13.4 5.7 1.6 0.3 0.1
2 8.0 6.8 2.9 0.8 0.2
3 2.7 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.017
λ Away (xG) 0.847
Total xG 1.864
League avg home goals 1.273
League avg away goals 0.875
Palmeiras attack strength 0.858
Palmeiras defence strength 0.975
Atletico-MG attack strength 0.992
Atletico-MG defence strength 0.931
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 50 / 51