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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mirassol cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Internacional.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Internacional 3-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.91 xG and Internacional 1.10 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.15 / defence 1.00 against Internacional attack 1.06 / defence 1.17, drawn from 27/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 56% | Draw 22% | Internacional 22%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 44%, Internacional 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Internacional's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Internacional (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights