Mirassol 2-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mirassol and Fluminense meet at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 9 October 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mirassol have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Fluminense in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fluminense half-time and goal-timing data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 62% versus Fluminense 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 42% | Fluminense 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.88 xG and Fluminense 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.176 / defence 1.020 | Fluminense attack 1.115 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.020. Data: 26 Mirassol games / 63 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 54% | Draw 23% | Fluminense 23%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Fluminense 4.35. Mirassol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 70% | Fluminense 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Oct 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 54% | Draw 23% | Fluminense 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Mirassol 1.88 / Fluminense 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.176 / def 1.020 | Fluminense attack 1.115 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Fluminense xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Fluminense kick off?
Mirassol vs Fluminense kicked off at 01:00 on Thursday 9 October 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Fluminense?
Mirassol 2 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Mirassol vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Fluminense part of?
Mirassol vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 54% chance of winning, Fluminense a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mirassol and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Fluminense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mirassol and Fluminense in?
Mirassol (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Fluminense (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mirassol's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Fluminense's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (1.11x) against Mirassol's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 26/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
54%
1.85
23%
4.44
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Mirassol xG
Total xG
3.04
1.16
Fluminense xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
4%
27.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.16 for Fluminense, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mirassol's recent record stands at 11W 10D 5L from 26 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 9L across 26 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Mirassol against 1.58 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 7W 5D 0L from 12 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fluminense's away record stands at 3W 4D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mirassol are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.31 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 11W 10D 5L in their last 26 games (1.65 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 12W 5D 9L in their last 26 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Fluminense away?
Mirassol's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.17 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Fluminense in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mirassol have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Mirassol
0
Draws
1
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Fluminense?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 2, Fluminense have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mirassol 1-0 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Fluminense?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 75%, Fluminense 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mirassol) and 42% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Fluminense in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Fluminense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Mirassol's games and 50% of Fluminense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mirassol's recent games and 42% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Fluminense tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Fluminense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Fluminense 2-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.88 xG and Fluminense 1.16 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.18 / defence 1.02 against Fluminense attack 1.11 / defence 1.13, drawn from 26/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 54% | Draw 23% | Fluminense 23%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 42%, Fluminense 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.65 PPG, Fluminense 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.