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Stalemate at Mirassol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol and Botafogo finished level at 0-0 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.39 xG and Botafogo 1.06 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mirassol fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Botafogo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.28 / defence 0.98 against Botafogo attack 1.11 / defence 0.76, drawn from 30/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 44% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 29%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 50%, Botafogo 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Botafogo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.83 PPG, Botafogo 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights