Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 37%, yet in-form Atletico Paranaense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mirassol and Atletico Paranaense meet at in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
Mirassol (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol at this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atletico Paranaense have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Atletico Paranaense have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Atletico Paranaense arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mirassol have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Atletico Paranaense in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Mirassol 0W, Atletico Paranaense 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mirassol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mirassol 70% and Atletico Paranaense 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 56% | Atletico Paranaense 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.64 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.994 / defence 1.183 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.149 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.178. Data: 64 Mirassol games / 27 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 37% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 36%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico Paranaense 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico Paranaense (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 70% | Atletico Paranaense 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 37% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Mirassol 1.64 / Atletico Paranaense 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.994 / def 1.183 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.149 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Atletico Paranaense xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026.
What competition is Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 37% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Mirassol and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (1 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 0 | Atletico Paranaense 1W.
What form are Mirassol and Atletico Paranaense in?
Mirassol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mirassol's attack rating (0.99) and Atletico Paranaense's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (1.15x) against Mirassol's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 64/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
37%
2.67
27%
3.75
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Mirassol xG
Total xG
3.24
1.60
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.60 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mirassol's recent record stands at 7W 8D 12L from 27 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 7L across 27 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Paranaense by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mirassol heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 5W 5D 4L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 5W 3D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Paranaense's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mirassol are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.52 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 7W 8D 12L in their last 27 games (1.07 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 13W 7D 7L in their last 27 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Mirassol's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 1.43 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Mirassol
0
Draws
1
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Atletico Paranaense?
From 1 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Mirassol, 57% for Atletico Paranaense — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Mirassol and 57% for Atletico Paranaense. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Atletico Paranaense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Mirassol's games and 57% of Atletico Paranaense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Mirassol's matches and 57% of Atletico Paranaense's.
Do Mirassol and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.